It’s not over yet.

So World Rugby have recommended South Africa should host the 2023 Rugby World Cup, but at the end of the day, the final decision does not come down to them.

This is left in the rather capable (we hope) hands of the unions. There’s going to be plenty of politics, plenty of favours, handshakes and brown envelopes, but at the end of the day there can be only one host.

Here’s how we reckon the votes might go on November 15th. In total there are 39 votes, with 20 needed for a majority.

England 3 – The RFU have previously stated they will back Ireland and why wouldn’t they?
Wales 3 – Same again here as the RFU. Why wouldn’t the Welsh vote for Ireland?
Scotland 3 – The Celts look after their own.
Italy 3 – Surely Conor O’Shea can have a word here and swing the vote in Ireland’s favour?
New Zealand 3 – Steve Tew has come out and said South Africa will get their vote.
Australia 3 – Another three for South Africa here we reckon.
Argentina 3 – 3 votes for their Rugby Championship buddies.

Oceania 2 – We reckon the Islanders will go for South Africa
South America 2 – A tricky one, but probably South Africa.
Rugby Americas North 2 – This is a tricky one, Ireland could very well nick this.
Africa 2 – South Africa definitely
Rest of Europe 2 – Will likely back the French.
Asia 2 – South Africa
Japan 2 – South Africa

Canada 1 – Ireland could also nick this.
USA 1 – Surely the yanks will vote for Ireland?
Georgia 1 – Maybe they’ll vote for Ireland in exchange for a bit of help in getting into the Six Nations?
Romania 1 – France more thank likely.

Totals:

South Africa – 19

Ireland – 17

France – 3

Should this happen, no country would have a majority, so we would have to go to a second round. In this case it could go either way, but Ireland would have a really good chance.